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| Charles Evans Hughes |
November 7, 1916 was election day. President Woodrow Wilson was in a close battle in his quest to retain his lease on the White House.
Wilson vs. Hughes: Former Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes had mounted a serious challenge to the president. In fact, at one point, it looked like Hughes, dubbed the “bearded iceberg” by Theodore Roosevelt because of both his beard and his cold and bland personality, would capture the White House and make Wilson a one term president.
California Goes for Wilson: But late returns from California eventually shifted the Golden State’s 13 electoral votes into Wilson’s column, and tipped the scales to Wilson. It was a close race with Wilson winning California by just 3,773 votes.
Hughes’ Response: As Hughes went to bed on election night before the final California returns had come in, he was confident that he had won the presidency. A reporter knocked on Hughes’ door the morning after the election to get his comments on this turn of events. An aide to Hughes informed the reporter that “The President can’t be disturbed.” The reporter replied: “Well when he wakes up tell him he’s no longer president.”
What If? How would history have been different if Hughes had beat Wilson?
Mike Purdy’s Presidential History Blog
© 2011 by Michael E. Purdy
www.PresidentialHistory.com
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I received the following response via e-mail from a reader in Florida:
Great question! Certainly one I’ve never considered. Perhaps the following would have been different.
1. He’d get us into the Great War sooner. Pushed by TR and Henry Cabot Lodge, Hughes may have been more aggressive then Wilson as well as unburdened by New York Governor Martin Glynn’s “He kept us out of war.” claim. Hughes may well have enforced our country’s rights as a neutral nation sooner. I don’t believe Hughes would have thought that Americans should be “too proud to fight” after u-boats sank ocean liners and freight carriers killing US citizens. Earlier entry into the war would have meant more casualties. Would Americans have been patient with the added length of active war involvement and longer casualties lists? Probably not. American’s were deeply divided about entangling our military in a European war; even with Wilson’s delayed entry.
2. Would Hughes have been reelected? Perhaps Wilson’s health would not have declined so dramatically allowing him to run and win a second, non-consecutive in 1920 – making him the second President to do so. Wilson may have lived long enough to complete a second term, but too late to be involved with the Treaty of Versailles or League of Nations. The carving up of Europe may have been quite different without Wilson’s “14 Points.” Perhaps the League of Nations (Wilson’s 14th Point) would never have emerged to become the model for the United Nations after WWII.
3. TR’s request to organize a calvary unit to be sent to Europe may have been granted and it’s doubtful TR would’ve survived the rigors of modern war. Would TR’s sacrifice have released his son’s from his mandated moral obligation to serve. If so, one of them, Archie, wouldn’t have been a Great War death casualty.
4. I bet Mexican-American relations would have improved.
5. Would Hughes have vetoed the Espionage Act and Sedition Acts because of his judicial bent and regard for basic civil liberties? Probably. Would Congress have ever considered such legislation? Doubtful.
6. If Hughes was unable to win in 1920 and Wilson’s health did decline, James Cox may have become President. Would Vice President Franklin Roosevelt’s polio been more “crippling” to his political career if it occurred in the national spotlight? With a President Cox, Coolidge, Hoover, or Mellon wouldn’t have cabinet officers. William Howard Taft wouldn’t have been elevated to Supreme Court Justice under President Cox either. A politically spent FDR, late emerging Coolidge and Hoover, different Treasury Secretary would’ve resulted in a different history leading up to the depression and WWII.
7. Yet, with all counterfactual history (that’s what speculation to questions like “How would history have been different if Hughes had beat Wilson?” is called), there’s a concept called “second order counterfactual history.” What’s that? It’s when the first “what if” occurs and the resulting changes have little or no continuing effect on what happens later. For instance, Hughes isn’t re-nominated for a 2nd term and Harding is the Republican nominee in 1920. He beats Cox/Roosevelt; Coolidge, Hoover, and Mellon become cabinet officers; Taft becomes Chief Justice, Roosevelt’s polio challenges are met in relative obscurity, and everything falls into place as before.